LoL betting markets: first blood, first tower, and dragon count
A practical guide to LoL-specific prop markets. Which ones offer edge for disciplined bettors, which ones are traps, and how the books tend to price them wrong.
Moneyline on an LoL match is usually priced sharply. The juice is out by tip-off. Where the edge lives, for bettors who watch a lot of games, is in the prop markets. This article covers the three most common ones: first blood, first tower, and dragon count.
First blood
What it is
The first champion kill of the game. Priced as a binary (Team A or Team B).
How books price it
Most books price first blood close to 50/50 regardless of team matchup. Sometimes slightly adjusted for the favorite. Not by much.
What actually predicts first blood
- Aggressive jungler pick. Teams with early-invade junglers (Xin Zhao, Lee Sin, Kindred in aggressive hands) first-blood rate is 55 percent.
- Support aggression. Supports who roam and counter-engage early (Rakan, Pyke, Braum) boost first blood rate.
- Specific lane matchups. Bot-lane 2v2 with a kill-threat ADC vs a weak laner often produces first blood.
- Side. Blue-side historically first-bloods slightly more often due to stronger top-side invade paths on several maps.
Where the edge lives
Teams with aggressive junglers facing teams with passive early-game tendencies. Books price these as 50/50. Real rates are often 55/45 or better.
Don’t bet first blood on every match. Bet it when the draft produces an aggressive-vs-passive matchup.
First tower
What it is
First tower destroyed (outer turret). Priced binary.
How books price it
Better than first blood. Sometimes adjusted for team style but usually not team-specific.
What predicts first tower
- Top-side priority. Teams with strong top laners plus junglers who camp top first-tower at above-average rates.
- Bot-side 2v2 priority. A strong bot lane can bully plates and get first tower.
- Early mid pressure. Strong mid laners with shove-push champions accelerate plate taking.
- Dragon trade. Sometimes teams trade dragon for tower, depending on strategic priorities.
Where the edge lives
When two teams with clear stylistic differences meet (top-priority team vs bot-priority team), first tower markets often underprice the side whose style plays out first. Watch the draft. Read the likely priority.
A common pattern
Team A has stronger top side. Team B has stronger bot side. Books price first tower at 50/50. In reality, whichever side has more sustained priority usually gets first tower.
If Team A’s top lane matchup is dominant (Fiora into Camille) while Team B’s bot lane matchup is even, first tower leans Team A. Bet accordingly.
Dragon count
What it is
Number of dragons a team takes in the game. Often priced over/under 2.5 or 3.5 for the favorite.
How books price it
Better than first blood and first tower. Some team-specific adjustment. But books often use region-wide averages when they should use matchup-specific data.
What predicts dragon count
- Early jungle priority. Teams with aggressive junglers taking dragon priority on the specific patch.
- Bot lane pressure. Teams that shove bot can hover dragon before spawn.
- Team composition. Early-game teamfight comps force dragons faster.
- Game length. Longer games = more dragons.
Where the edge lives
Short games that still produce dragon priority (due to stomps) often result in 3+ dragons for the winning team before the enemy can even group. Books price “over 2.5” as if games are balanced. Games are not always balanced.
If you have an opinion that one side is a heavy favorite with an early-game comp, the dragon over is usually value.
Combined markets
Books offer combos like “first blood AND first tower for Team A.” Correlated markets often priced as if independent. If your draft analysis suggests Team A has heavy early-game priority, both of these go Team A more often than the independent probabilities would suggest.
Calculate: if first blood A is 55% and first tower A is 55%, the book prices the combo at 30% (55 * 55). Real rate, if driven by a common cause (early-game priority), might be 35-40%. That gap is value.
Don’t chase combos as their own strategy. Look for them when you have a strong directional read.
Markets to avoid
First Baron
Too late in the game. By 20 minutes when Baron spawns, the early-game priority is often decided and the market has priced it in.
Player-specific kill props
Too much variance. Pro LoL role assignments shift by matchup and champion. Player props are close to coinflips.
Map win in BO3 game 3
Very high variance. Both teams have shown their hand. Pricing is usually tight.
A worked example
Match: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports, LCK Spring.
Analysis
- T1 top laner is playing a strong laning champion. HLE top is playing a scaling champion.
- T1 jungler is an aggressive invade type. HLE jungler is a farming type.
- Both bot lanes are even.
Market
- Moneyline: T1 1.45, HLE 2.80. Sharp price.
- First blood: T1 1.95, HLE 1.85. Roughly 50/50.
- First tower: T1 1.85, HLE 1.95. T1 slight favorite.
Our read
- Aggressive jungler + lane advantage = first blood ~60/40 T1.
- First tower: strong top priority + early pressure = ~62/38 T1.
- First tower at 1.85 (implied 54%) is +8 edge. Bet it.
- First blood at 1.95 (implied 51%) is +9 edge. Bet it.
- Moneyline at 1.45 (implied 69%) is roughly fair. Skip.
The short version
- First blood: edge exists when aggressive jungler meets passive jungler. Bet selectively.
- First tower: edge exists when one team has clear lane priority. Watch the draft.
- Dragon count: edge exists on short-game stomps by early-game comps. Bet the over.
- Combos of correlated markets are often mispriced. Look for them when you have a strong directional read.
Prop markets are where most of the remaining edge lives in LoL betting. They require watching games, not just tracking records. That is why they keep working.